By Adrian Crawford
Posted April 17, 2011 01:16:00
Updated April 17, 2011 01:26:00
The 2010/11 NBA season proved to be one of the most headline-heavy in memory. Superstars teamed up in Miami and New York, elder statesmen San Antonio and Boston proved they still have the fire to compete for another championship while the defending champion Lakers went up and down in their quest for another hat-trick of titles.
With the postseason kicking off on Sunday morning (AEST) the Larry O'Brien Trophy is still anyone's for the taking. Denver came home with a wet sail but does it have what it takes to win a title without Carmelo Anthony? Can the Heat's three stars carry them to all the glory for the first time since 2006? Will Los Angeles deliver Phil Jackson his 12th ring and fourth three-peat? Only time will tell, but for now let's take a look at how the first round shapes up in the East.
Chicago (1) v Indiana (8)
There is no hotter team going into the playoffs than the Bulls. Owning the league's best record at 62-20 and clinching the first seed in the Eastern Conference for the first time since Michael Jordan led the team to its last title in 1997-98, Chicago is in devastating touch indeed. Former first overall draft pick Derrick Rose is at the helm this time around and is the hottest candidate in MVP discussions after having a career-best season in almost every statistical category.
Rose has matured into the franchise leader Chicago had hoped he would be, leading the Bulls through difficult stretches when marquee power forward signing Carlos Boozer and energetic centre Joakim Noah spent time on the sidelines injured. He thrived under pressure and was the player his team-mates constantly looked to late in close games. That said, Chicago certainly runs deep in every position. Boozer and Noah's understudies - Taj Gibson and Kurt Thomas - have been useful in limited minutes and backup guards Kyle Korver and Keith Bogans give the Bulls' second unit an outside shooting threat. While starting small forward Luol Deng has plenty of minutes on the clock this season he's also having a productive year feeding off Rose.
The Bulls forced an entertaining seven games out of eventual champion Boston in 2008 but were rolled in five by Cleveland last season, so Rose's and indeed his team's playoff mettle will certainly be tested against Indiana. The Pacers, on the other hand, haven't played in the postseason since 2006 when they were beaten in six games by New Jersey in the first round. That year was a nightmare for Indiana, which suffered through the infamous "Malice at the Palace" brawl against Detroit, and the franchise has not been the same since.
No player from that season remains on the Pacers' roster, which could be why they've returned to the Eastern Conference's top eight. Led by franchise player Danny Granger and young sidekicks Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert, Indiana edged Milwaukee by two games to sneak into the playoffs with a 37-45 record, making the Pacers the only losing team to reach the postseason this year. Former coach Jim O'Brien was sacked midseason and assistant Frank Vogel took the reins, somewhat reenergising the club to wins over fellow playoff teams Portland, Chicago, New York, Boston and Atlanta.
The Pacers' inexperience in the postseason is going to be a key factor in the first round against the red-hot Bulls. Their go-to man Granger can be a streaky shooter and there are few options besides Collison and Hibbert. Expect Chicago to run Vogel's charges ragged, although they can probably steal one in front of a basketball-mad Indiana crowd at Conseco Fieldhouse.
Prediction: Chicago 4-1
Miami (2) v Philadelphia (7)
All eyes have been on South Beach, Florida since the summer of 2010 when LeBron James and Chris Bosh teamed up with Dwyane Wade in Miami chasing the titles that eluded the latter pair in Cleveland and Toronto respectively. The move was divisive but love or hate the new-look Heat, they shook off a shaky start to the season, questions of chemistry and some sub-par performances against the Association's toughest teams to clinch the number two seed and book a meeting with Philadelphia in the first round with a 58-24 record. They finished in the top eight in the league in points scored (eighth, 102.1ppg) and conceded (sixth, 94.6) so there's no denying they're a threat.
The biggest question to loom over the Heat this season is their depth. Miami has three of the biggest offensive stars in the league in James (26.7ppg, 7.5rpg, 7.0apg), Wade (25.5ppg, 6.4rpg, 4.6apg) and Bosh (18.7ppg, 8.3rpg) but there's very little else backing them up. No other player on the team averages more than 8ppg, and the top honour goes to Udonis Haslem who missed 69 games due to a foot injury and is only just returning to the practise court. Centres Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Erick Dampier aren't getting any younger and have all played limited minutes this season, which could expose the Heat against strong defensive frontcourts like those in Los Angeles, Oklahoma City or a healthy Boston.
With that said, Philadelphia should not pose many problems for Erik Spoelstra's crew of stars. The 76ers enjoyed a resurgent season despite starting in a 4-13 hole that was reminiscent of last season. But with 12th-year power forward Elton Brand enjoying his best scoring year in three seasons and a better-than-average defensive output (12th in the league, 97.5 points conceded per game) as well as a shared offensive load between young guards Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams and franchise star Andre Iguodala, the Sixers returned to the postseason after missing out in 2009.
Miami swept the season series between the two teams 3-0, with Wade averaging 30.7 points on 52 per cent shooting against Philly. Expect much of the same as the Sixers come to Florida having lost five of their last six games. Even with more depth on the bench, Philadelphia will struggle to contain the firepower that is the Heat's Big Three.
Prediction: Miami 4-1
Boston (3) v New York (6)
What a difference a trade can make. While raw statistics painted one picture, the Celtics seemed to be in disarray after dealing title-winning defensive centre Kendrick Perkins and energy bench guy Nate Robinson to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic at the deadline. Boston strung together 14 wins before Christmas, including impressive victories over postseason players Chicago, Portland, Denver, Philly and Atlanta. But inconsistency and injury played niggling roles in the second half of the Celtics' season as Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal remained sidelined and unable to properly shore up the void that Perkins vacated.
Appearances can be deceiving though. In the 2010 playoffs, Boston limped into the first round looking nothing like a team that won the title less than two years earlier. But the Cs blasted through the Eastern Conference, losing only five games on their way to the finals against Los Angeles where they stretched the defending champions to a gruelling seventh game. Like their old rival Lakers, the Celtics have the innate ability to kick the energy up several notches on the big stage and with the defensive intensity of Kevin Garnett, the leadership of veteran small forward Paul Pierce, the outside shooting of an evergreen Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo's brilliant court vision, Boston should not be counted out by any means.
New York reloaded this season with the offseason acquisition of Amar'e Stoudemire and a mid-year trade that brought Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups to the Big Apple. The Knicks certainly have their scoring sorted for their first playoffs campaign since 2004, with Anthony (26.3ppg) and Stoudemire (25.3ppg) ensuring New York was ranked the second-highest in the league in points scored with 106.5 a night - a fairly common statistic for Mike D'Antoni teams. Where the Knickerbockers will fall to Boston though is at the other end of the court - they don't play a great deal of defence. New York finished with a 42-40 record, and it's easy to see why - they had the third-worst defence in the NBA allowing 105.7ppg for the season.
Even without Perkins, Boston finished the regular season with the best defence in the league, conceding a stingy 91.1 points per game. If Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal can both return from injury to provide solid minutes down low, consider Stoudemire's effectiveness in the paint mostly negated. Putting cagey defender Pierce on Anthony will stem the flow even more, and Rondo's quickness is an easy match for veteran point guard Billups. The New York-Boston rivalry runs fierce so the Knicks certainly won't lay down, but the Celtics are more than likely to make it out of the first round.
Prediction: Boston 4-3
Orlando (4) v Atlanta (5)
The Magic haven't enjoyed the same success as they did in 2008-09 when they made it to the Finals but lost to the Lakers. They flirted with 60-win seasons the last two years with 59-23 records, but lost seven more games this time around and settled for the fourth seed in the East. Orlando's formula has not changed - with Dwight Howard (22.9ppg, 14.1rpg, 2.4bpg) banging in the lane and a host of outside shooters forcing defenders to hedge their bets - and they have a deep roster of guys who can score on a nightly basis. Vince Carter (15.1ppg), Jason Richardson (13.9) and Jameed Nelson (13.1) can all fill it up from long range, making the Magic a constant perimeter threat.
What Orlando may lack is the killer instinct to win its way through to the Conference Finals and further. Howard and coach Stan van Gundy publicly questioned the Magic's drive this season and their desire to play night in night out, and both men have expressed dismay at times when the superstar centre was left to carry the team's hopes alone. And while Orlando boasted the fourth most miserly defence in the NBA this year, it has no true back-up big man for when Howard inevitably needs a rest. Like their Florida neighbours the Heat, the Magic could run into trouble against deep frontcourts down the track.
In the first round they drew the perennial prematurely exiting Hawks. The club has not made it past the second round of the playoffs in its history in Atlanta - 42 seasons of postseason disappointment. To add more chinks to its armour, Atlanta lost its final six games - the league's worst home stretch skid among playoff teams - and has not won more than three in a row since before Christmas. The Hawks' record on the road is an average 20-21 for the season but they won their season series against Orlando 3-1, including one on the Magic's floor. Atlanta could also boast that it had a Howard-stopper in Jason Collins, a 10-year veteran who pestered the Orlando big man in their last regular-season match-up.
The Hawks have several options on the offensive end with Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford and Jamal Crawford all averaging more than 14 a night. But save for a few role players in Kirk Hinrich, Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia, Atlanta's depth pales in comparison to Orlando's and they will have to capitalise on a cold shooting night for the Magic if they want to take a couple of wins out of this series.
Prediction: Orlando 4-2
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